Turn and Face the Strange.
Calum Weir, Research Manager
Reflections on a Focus Group in a Time of Changes.
“I’d wish him luck, because he needs it. And I would say, be bold. Don’t be timid. Go follow your instincts, go for it.” (Man, 74)
As part of our regular series of focus groups at ThinkLabour, we asked a group of six Labour considerers about their hopes and fears about Andy Burnham becoming Britain’s latest Prime Minister. Although all of them would think about voting Labour, they held very different underlying attitudes, ranging from committed left liberals to more right-leaning transactional voters. What united them was a cautious optimism.
This is reflected in surveys. YouGov’s June favourability tracker had Burnham at net -4: not exactly fawning, but the best score of any politician tested. Opinium found the same shape as he entered Downing Street: overall approval just tilting towards the negative, yet leading the field on being likeable, competent and looking like a Prime Minister.
But for some participants, particularly those based in the south, there was some confusion about what a Burnham premiership would look like, with one participant saying that apart from opposition to the cancellation of HS2 they “don’t know any of his other policies.” (Woman, 69) Another said “I hadn’t heard about him very much before everything happened recently. Maybe because I live in the South.” (Woman, 37)
Those from the North had firmer views.”He’s definitely well thought of in general up north... he’s slightly worried people down south that he’s got too much of an allegiance to the North, and I don’t think that that’s fully true.” (Man, 38) For him, the northern allegiance is tangible: “We can’t get a train back from London unless it leaves about 10 o’clock, because there’s no electrification between Hull and Doncaster. The north in some areas is just left behind.” (Man, 38) This doesn’t necessarily mean that voters from the South see themselves in for a Harrying from the North, however: “I’m a Londoner, and I don’t have any objection to the view that it’s too London-based... it’s been too London-centric for far too long... I don’t want the balance to be tipped too far the other way.” (Woman, 69) She would even entertain the most visible version of rebalancing: “I don’t think we have to be as extreme as having Number 10 Downing Street in Manchester, but so be it, if that’s what happens.” (Woman, 69)
Several participants drew a contrast with Keir Starmer. One put it in the brutal style only the British public can: “He comes across probably as slightly more genuine, but I think that’s mainly because he’s probably got a personality, but I don’t think it would be difficult to have much more of a personality than Keir Starmer, who just looks like a photocopier that’s running out of ink, doesn’t he? God love him.” (Man, 46)
When Britain woke up to see Keir Starmer at the lectern of Downing Street, many of them had voted for one simple concept the day before: Change. Just after the election, 34% of Labour voters said their biggest reason was getting rid of the Conservatives, far ahead of any other.
As one participant reflected: “people didn’t really know what they wanted to vote for, or who they wanted to vote for, they just knew they didn’t want more of the same. They were fatigued by it.” (Man, 46) Expressing itself as the agent of change was a strategic success for Labour. The issue is that voting based on fatigue for one party leaves a blank canvas for the other: “That’s the whole problem Keir Starmer had, was I’m not even sure he knew what he meant by change.” (Man, 74)
The one change that Labour could feasibly deliver on that came up time and time again in the focus groups was one of integrity. The public can understand that changing behaviour is the one thing you can deliver instantly, even if changing material circumstances takes a while. This is why there was such a strong reaction to immediate stories of expenses and freebies. It was expressed well by one participant: “I thought there was gonna be no more getting caught out... I felt there needed to be almost whiter than white. And I think within a week, there’d been news stories coming out: Starmer being given Arsenal tickets, this person’s been given Taylor Swift tickets, and these little things. But it’s like, ah, they’re the same as the other guys.” (Man, 38) He went on to say: “It was actually, what’s the difference? These are the same type of politicians that we’ve had for the last 10 years.” (Man, 38)
The challenge for Burnham will be to succeed where Keir Starmer did not: convincing voters that he represents genuine change. The public sees other places where politicians on the left and centre are putting across positive visions by doing bold things. One participant said: “If Burnham could do anything like what Mamdani has, it’s nothing but just positive stuff for the UK” (Man, 31). It is not any single policy he admires: “That’s what Mamdani is, he’s just a person for the people, and he’s trying to make everyone’s life a lot easier.” (Man, 31) That’s not just an ideological tilt to the left: another cited Mark Carney, for similar reasons.
Like those other figures, Andy Burnham may also be able to turn scepticism. One participant said: “I think he would be more Labour values.” (Woman, 69) They even cited long-past achievements: “He went to the Hillsborough event first time, and he was like, yeah, I’ll be different, we’ll come and get some of it sorted. And completely changed people’s opinions on him. He was vilified, and actually almost turned into a hero. Someone was finally listening to him... I think if you can get them onside, then you can scale that up.” (Man, 38)
When we asked the group what they thought Labour values were, one participant said “It was supposed to be for working people, because that’s what Labour means.” (Woman, 69) Another put it more concretely: “Just taking care of the working class: affordable rent, affordable bills, utilities... during the winter some of the elderly population have to go to a shopping centre to stay warm because they can’t afford heat.” (Man, 31) The public’s definition is simple: Labour exists for people who contribute, and for those who cannot protect themselves. They did not see the previous iteration of this government doing that.
Some are willing to give Burnham time to demonstrate change: “I’m an Arsenal fan... we gave Arteta a lot of time, and after five, six years, we got the Premiership. You just gotta give him time... if you’re able to slowly work on something, eventually it will pay off.” (Man, 31) Patience is what voters offer a leader, but it is not itself a plan. Burnham’s task is to take what has been quietly built and do something a fair bit braver with it, without letting go of the Labour values the public can still recite. Voters expect it, and in particular, expect it from him.